Nigeria’s privately owned Dangote refinery has increased the price of gasoline by 14 percent and voided existing supply agreements tied to earlier pricing, signaling renewed volatility in the country’s downstream fuel market.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery announced on Monday that its new ex-depot gasoline price is ₦799 per litre, up from around ₦699 per litre during the December–January period. The company said it had temporarily reduced prices over the Christmas season to ease pressure on households during peak fuel demand and heightened consumer spending.
Local fuel brokers reported that petrol traded at roughly ₦700 per litre between December 12 and January 26.
Supply Agreements Cancelled
Alongside the price increase, Dangote refinery informed local buyers that purchase agreements based on the previous pricing structure were no longer valid. Market participants confirmed that several deals were cancelled.
One trader told Argus that a supply agreement concluded last week at ₦699 per litre, with truck loadings scheduled for this week, was annulled on Monday as Dangote prepared to dispatch its own trucks for product lifting.
Impact on Imports and Regulation
Dangote’s earlier price cuts had largely eliminated arbitrage opportunities for gasoline imports from Europe. However, the latest increase could make imports commercially viable again, according to some traders.
Others cautioned that any return to imports depends on approvals from Nigeria’s downstream regulator, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which has so far declined to issue gasoline import permits for 2026. The regulator has indicated it intends to approve imports only to cover shortfalls in domestic refining capacity.
Refinery Operations and Output
Dangote refinery chief executive David Bird said the facility continues to supply about 50 million litres of gasoline daily to the domestic market. However, the NMDPRA reported that actual supply in December averaged 24,170 tonnes per day, below the refinery’s planned output of about 37,750 tonnes per day.
A Dangote spokesperson said the refinery has been offering roughly 37,500 tonnes per day since December, noting that marketer offtake does not always match volumes made available.
Bird also said gasoline supply could continue during planned maintenance but did not confirm whether any scheduled or unscheduled work was ongoing. The regulator stated on January 11 that the refinery’s gasoline-producing residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) was offline.
Shipping data from Kpler showed that four low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil cargoes totaling 358,000 tonnes were loaded from the refinery between January 4 and 20, the highest volume since September 2025, when the RFCC previously underwent maintenance.
A refinery source told Argus that Dangote plans to shut its crude distillation unit (CDU) for about one week, possibly starting this week. Another trader said the CDU was already offline as of Monday, though this could not be independently confirmed.
Global Market Context
Benchmark non-oxygenated gasoline barge cracks to ICE Brent stood at $9.17 per barrel at the time of reporting, slightly down from $9.23 per barrel at the close of Monday’s trading session.
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