Production Declines Year-on-Year and Month-on-Month
Nigeria’s oil production declined by 6.3 percent year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day in January 2026, down from 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that output also fell on a month-on-month basis. Production dropped by 5.4 percent from 1.72 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.627 million bpd in January 2026, according to the Commission’s latest National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report.
The agency disclosed that the lowest and highest combined crude oil and condensate production during the month were 1.59 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd respectively.
Below Budget Benchmark
The January performance means Nigeria failed to meet its 2026 budget oil production benchmark of 1.84 million bpd. The budget projections are based on an oil price benchmark of 64.85 dollars per barrel and an exchange rate of 1,400 naira to the dollar.
Despite weaker output, global oil prices remained slightly above the Federal Government’s benchmark, trading around 67 dollars per barrel, compared to nearly 70 dollars per barrel in recent weeks amid international market volatility.
OPEC Data Shows Further Shortfall
Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, declined by five percent year-on-year to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, compared to 1.539 million bpd in January 2025.
In its February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC stated that the figures were obtained through direct communication with member countries.
The report also showed that Nigeria fell short of its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd for the period under review.
Condensate Production
According to NUPRC data, Nigeria currently produces approximately 196,028 bpd of condensate. OPEC does not include condensate volumes in its crude oil production calculations, which partly explains the difference between the Commission’s total production figure and OPEC’s crude-only data.
Nigeria’s latest production figures highlight ongoing output challenges, even as oil prices remain moderately supportive in the global market.
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